In this week's edition of DDDD (Data-driven DD), I'll be going over the real reason why we have been seeing a rally for the past few weeks, defying all logic and fundamentals - retail investors. We'll look into several data sets to see how retail interest in stock markets have reached record levels in the past few weeks, how this affected stock prices, and why we've most likely seen the top at this point, unless we see one of the "positive catalysts" that I mentioned in my previous post, which is unlikely (except for more news about Remdesivir).
Disclaimer - This is not financial advice, and a lot of the content below is my personal opinion. In fact, the numbers, facts, or explanations presented below could be wrong and be made up. Don't buy random options because some person on the internet says so; look at what happened to all the SPY 220p 4/17 bag holders. Do your own research and come to your own conclusions on what you should do with your own money, and how levered you want to be based on your personal risk tolerance.
Inspiration
Most people who know me personally know that I spend an unhealthy amount of my free time in finance and trading as a hobby, even competing in paper options trading competitions when I was in high school. A few weeks ago, I had a friend ask if he could call me because he just installed Robinhood and wanted to buy SPY puts after seeing everyone on wallstreetbets post gains posts from all the tendies they’ve made from their SPY puts. The problem was, he actually didn’t understand how options worked at all, and needed a thorough explanation about how options are priced, what strike prices and expiration dates mean, and what the right strategy to buying options are. That’s how I knew we were at the euphoria stage of buying SPY puts - it’s when dumb money starts to pour in, and people start buying securities because they see everyone else making money and they want in, even if they have no idea what they’re buying, and price becomes dislocated from fundementals. Sure enough, less than a week later, we started the bull rally that we are currently in. Bubbles are formed when people buy something not because of logic or even gut feeling, but when people who previously weren’t involved see their dumb neighbors make tons of money from it, and they don’t want to miss out.
A few days ago, I started getting questions from other friends about what stocks they should buy and if I thought something was a good investment. That inspired me to dig a bit deeper to see how many other people are thinking the same thing.
Data
Ever since March, we’ve seen an unprecedented amount of money pour into the stock market from retail investors.
Google Search Trends
\"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020
\"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 12 months
\"stocks\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020
\"stocks\" Google Trends 12 months
Brokerage data
Robinhood SPY holders
\"Robinhood\" Google Trends 12 months
wallstreetbets' favorite broker Google Trends 12 months
Excerpt from E*Trade earnings statement
Excerpt from Schwab earnings statement
TD Ameritrade Excerpt
Media
cnbc.com Alexa rank
CNBC viewership & rankings
wallstreetbets comments / day
​
investing comments / day
Analysis
What we can see from Reddit numbers, Google Trends, and CNBC stats is that in between the first week of March and first week of April, we see a massive inflow of retail interest in the stock market. Not only that, but this inflow of interest is coming from all age cohorts, from internet-using Zoomers to TV-watching Boomers. Robinhood SPY holdings and earnings reports from E*Trade, TD Ameritrade, and Schwab have also all confirmed record numbers of new clients, number of trades, and assets. There’s something interesting going on if you look closer at the numbers. The numbers growth in brokers for designed for “less sophisticated” investors (i.e. Robinhood and E*Trade) are much larger than for real brokers (i.e. Schwab and Ameritrade). This implies that the record number of new users and trade volume is coming from dumb money. The numbers shown here only really apply to the US and Canada, but there’s also data to suggest that there’s also record numbers of foreign investors pouring money into the US stock market as well.
However, after the third week of March, we see the interest start to slowly decline and plateau, indicating that we probably have seen most of those new investors who wanted to have a long position in the market do so.
SPX daily
Rationale
Pretty much everything past this point is purely speculation, and isn’t really backed up by any solid data so take whatever I say here with a cup of salt. We could see from the graph that new investor interest started with the first bull trap we saw in the initial decline from early March, and peaking right after the end of the crash in March. So it would be fair to guess that we’re seeing a record amount of interest in the stock market from a “buy the dip” mentality, especially from Robinhood-using Millennials. Here’s a few points on my rationalization of this behavior, based on very weak anecdotal evidence

• They missed out of their chance of getting in the stock market at the start of the bull market that happened at the end of 2009
• They’ve all seen the stock market make record gains throughout their adult lives, but believing that the market might be overheated, they were waiting for a crash
• Most of them have gotten towards the stage of their lives where they actually have some savings and can finally put some money aside for investments
• This stock market crash seems like their once-in-a-decade opportunity that they’ve been waiting for, so everyone jumped in
• Everyone’s stuck at their homes with vast amounts of unexpected free time on their hands

Most of these new investors got their first taste in the market near the bottom, and probably made some nice returns. Of course, since they didn’t know what they were doing, they probably put a very small amount of money at first, but after seeing a 10% return over one week, validating that maybe they do know something, they decide to slowly pour in more and more of their life savings. That’s what’s been fueling this bull market.
Sentiment & Magic Crayons
As I mentioned previously, this bull rally will keep going until enough bears convert to bulls. Markets go up when the amount of new bullish positions outnumber the amount of new bearish positions, and vice versa. Record amounts of new investors, who previously never held a position in the market before, fueled the bullish side of this equation, despite all the negative data that has come out and dislocating the price from fundamentals. All the smart money that was shorting the markets saw this happening, and flipped to become bulls because you don’t fight the trend, even if the trend doesn’t reflect reality.
From the data shown above, we can see new investor interest growth has started declining since mid March and started stagnating in early April. The declining volume in SPY since mid-March confirms this. That means, once the sentiment of the new retail investors starts to turn bearish, and everyone figures out how much the stocks they’re holding are really worth, another sell-off will begin. I’ve seen something very similar to this a few years ago with Bitcoin. Near the end of 2017, Bitcoin started to become mainstream and saw a flood of retail investors suddenly signing up for Coinbase (i.e. Robinhood) accounts and buying Bitcoin without actually understanding what it is and how it works. Suddenly everyone, from co-workers to grandparents, starts talking about Bitcoin and might have thrown a few thousand dollars into it. This appears to be a very similar parallel to what’s going on right now. Of course there’s differences here in that equities have an intrinsic value, although many of them have gone way above what they should be intrinsically worth, and the vast majority of retail investors don’t understand how to value companies. Then, during December, when people started thinking that the market was getting a bit overheated, some started taking their profits, and that’s when the prices crashed violently. This flip in sentiment now look like it has started with equities.
SPY daily
Technical Analysis, or magic crayons, is a discipline in finance that uses statistical analysis to predict market trends based on market sentiment. Of course, a lot of this is hand-wavy and is very subjective; two people doing TA on the same price history can end up getting opposite results, so TA should always be taken with a grain of salt and ideally be backed with underlying justification and not be blindly followed. In fact, I’ve since corrected the ascending wedge I had on SPY since my last post since this new wedge is a better fit for the new trading data.
There’s a few things going on in this chart. The entire bull rally we’ve had since the lows can be modelled using a rising wedge. This is a pattern where there is a convergence of a rising support and resistance trendline, along with falling volume. This indicates a slow decline in net bullish sentiment with investors, with smaller and smaller upside after each bounce off the support until it hits a resistance. The smaller the bounces, the less bullish investors are. When the bearish sentiment takes over across investors, the price breaks below this wedge - a breakdown, and indicates a start of another downtrend.
This happened when the wedge hit resistance at around 293, which is around the same price as the 200 day moving average, the 62% retracement (considered to be the upper bound of a bull trap), and a price level that acted as a support and resistance throughout 2019. The fact that it gapped down to break this wedge is also a strong signal, indicating a sudden swing in investor sentiment overnight. The volume of the break down also broke the downwards trend of volume we’ve had since the beginning of the bull rally, indicating a sudden surge of people selling their shares. This doesn’t necessarily mean that we will go straight from here, and I personally think that we will see the completion of a heads-and-shoulders pattern complete before SPY goes below 274, which in itself is a strong support level. In other words, SPY might go from 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 before breaking the 274 support level.
VIX Daily
Doing TA is already sketchy, and doing TA on something like VIX is even more sketchy, but I found this interesting so I’ll mention it. Since the start of the bull rally, we’ve had VIX inside a descending channel. With the breakdown we had in SPY yesterday, VIX has also gapped up to have a breakout from this channel, indicating that we may see future volatility in the next week or so.
Putting Everything Together
Finally, we get to my thesis. This entire bull rally has been fueled by new retail investors buying the dip, bringing the stock price to euphoric levels. Over the past few weeks, we’ve been seeing the people waiting at the sidelines for years to get into the stock market slowly FOMO into the rally in smaller and smaller volumes, while the smart money have been locking in their profits at an even slower rate - hence an ascending wedge. As the amount of new retail interest in the stock market started slowed down, the amount of new bulls started to decline. It looks like Friday might have been the start of the bearish sentiment taking over, meaning it’s likely that 293 was the top, unless any significant bullish events happen in the next two weeks like a fourth round of stimulus, in which case we might see 300. This doesn’t mean we’ll instantly go back to circuit breakers on Monday, and we might see 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 happen before panic, this time by the first-time investors, eventually bringing us down towards SPY 180.
tldr; we've reached the top
EDIT - I'll keep a my live thoughts here as we move throughout this week in case anyone's still reading this and interested.
5/4 8PM - /ES was red last night but steadily climbed, which was expected since 1h RSI was borderline oversold, leaving us to a slightly green day. /ES looks like it has momentum going up, but is approaching towards overbought territory now. Expecting it to go towards 284 (possibly where we'll open tomorrow) and bouncing back down from that price level
5/5 Market Open - Well there goes my price target. I guess at this point it might go up to 293 again, but will need a lot of momentum to push back there to 300. Seems like this is being driven by oil prices skyrocketing.
5/5 3:50PM - Volume for the upwards price action had very little volume behind it. Seeing a selloff EOD today, could go either way although I have a bearish bias. Going to hold cash until it goes towards one end of the 274-293 channel (see last week's thesis). Still believe that we will see it drop below 274 next week, but we might be moving sideways in the channel this week and a bit of next week before that happens. Plan for tomorrow is buy short dated puts if open < 285. Otherwise, wait till it goes to 293 before buying those puts
5/5 6PM - What we saw today could be a false breakout above 284. Need tomorrow to open below 285 for that to be confirmed. If so, my original thesis of it going back down to 274 before bouncing back up will still be in play.
5/6 EOD - Wasn't a false breakout. Looks like it's still forming the head-and-shoulders pattern mentioned before, but 288 instead of 284 as the level. Still not sure yet so I'm personally going to be holding cash and waiting this out for the next few days. Will enter into short positions if we either go near 293 again or drop below 270. Might look into VIX calls if VIX goes down near 30.
5/7 Market Open - Still waiting. If we break 289 we're probably heading to 293. I'll make my entry to short positions when we hit that a second time. There's very little bullish momentum left (see MACD 1D), so if we hit 293 and then drop back down, we'll have a MACD crossover event which many traders and algos use as a sell signal. Oil is doing some weird shit.
5/7 Noon - Looks like we're headed to 293. Picked up VIX 32.5c 5/27 since VIX is near 30.
5/7 11PM - /ES is hovering right above 2910, with 4h and 1h charts are bullish from MACD and 1h is almost overbought in RSI. Unless something dramatic happens we'll probably hit near 293 tomorrow, which is where I'll get some SPY puts. We might drop down before ever touching it, or go all the way to 295 (like last time) during the day, but expecting it to close at or below 293. After that I'm expecting a gap down Monday as we start the final leg down next week towards 274. Expecting 1D MACD to crossover in the final leg down, which will be a signal for bears to take over and institutions / day traders will start selling again
5/8 Market Open - Plan is to wait till a good entry today, either when technicals looks good or we hit 293, and then buy some SPY June 285p and July 275p
5/8 Noon - Everything still going according to plan. Most likely going to slowly inch towards 293 by EOD. Will probably pick up SPY puts and more VIX calls at power hour (3 - 4PM). Monday will probably gap down, although there's a small chance of one more green / sideways day before that happens if we have bullish catalysts on the weekend.
5/8 3:55PM - SPY at 292.60. This is probably going to be the closest we get to 293. Bought SPY 290-260 6/19 debit spreads and 292-272 5/15 debit spreads, as well as doubling down on VIX calls from yesterday, decreasing my cost basis. Still looks like there's room for one more green day on Monday, so I left some money on the side to double down if that's the case, although it's more likely than not we won't get there.
5/8 EOD - Looks like we barely touched 293 exactly AH before rebounding down. Too bad you can't buy options AH, but more convinced we'll see a gap down on Monday. Going to work on another post over the weekend and do my updates there. Have a great weekend everyone!

EXPERIMENT - Tracking Top 10 Cryptos of 2020 - Month 7 +71%
See the full blog post with all the nerdy tables here. If you're just joining us, this probably isn't what you think it is: it's more of a documentary than investing advice. See the rules of the Experiments here.
tl;dr: As of the end of July, the 2020 Top Ten Cryptos were up +71%. ETH best performer in July followed by XRP and BSV. Overall since Jan 2020: ETH moves into first place, followed by BSV. 100% of 2020 Top Ten are in positive territory, all ahead of Tether.
Over three years, July 2020 is the first month that the combined crypto Top Ten Portfolios have outperformed a hypothetical same approach with the S&P. Details:

Month Seven – UP 71%

https://preview.redd.it/iiyifztdzrg51.png?width=1132&format=png&auto=webp&s=8fc7a653bd058f4664ad6443b590e368c58167fc
Last month, I warned the 2020 Top Ten to watch its back. After being ahead most of the year, the 2020 Top Ten has officially lost its status as the best performing of the Top Ten “Index Fund” Experiments. Up +71% as of July, the 2019 Top Ten is now second to the 2019 Top Ten, which is up…. +72%.

Question of the month:

Which cryptocurrency surged in value after a TikTok challenge that encouraged users to buy went viral?

A) Dogecoin B) Chainlink C) Bitcoin D) Ethereum
Scroll down for the answer.

Ranking and June Winners and Losers

2020 Top Ten Rank
Another month of mostly downward movement: the “T”s (Tether and Tezos) both fell one spot. BNB dropped two spots and now is at the very edge of the Top Ten. XRP climbed one in the rankings, taking back third place from Tether. Regardless of how you feel about XRP, it was a bad sign to many crypto observers to find a stablcoin in the Top Three last month (no offense meant, USDT).
July Winners – ETH, up a massive +55% in July. XRP and BSV tied for second place, both up +52% on the month.
July Losers – Tether. The second worst performing crypto, Tezos, finished the month up +19%.
Since COVID has hammered the sporting world, let’s be overly competitive and pit these cryptos against themselves, shall we? Here’s a table showing which cryptos have the most monthly wins and losses at this point in the experiment. In a three way tie for first place we have ETH, Tether, and Tezos, each with two Ws. BSV and Tether have the most Ls – both have finished in last place three out of the first seven months of the 2020 Top Ten Experiment.

Overall update – ETH moves into first place, followed by BSV. 100% of Top Ten are in positive territory.

Ethereum has moved into a commanding lead, up +177% on the year, followed by BSV, up +141%. After three straight months in the lead, Tezos fell hard in July, now sitting in third place (although still up an impressive +124% in 2020). Discounting Tether (again, no offense Big-T), EOS (+27%) is the worst performing cryptocurrency of the 2020 Top Ten portfolio. 100% of the cryptos in this group are either flat or in positive territory.

Total Market Cap for the cryptocurrency sector:

The overall crypto market gained more than $80B in July, and is now up over +80% since the beginning of this year’s experiment in January 2020.

Bitcoin dominance:

BitDom
BitDom finally budged: it fell about 2.5% percent to land at 62.3%, signaling a greater appetite for altcoins this month. The range up to this point in the year has been roughly 62% to 68%.

Overall return on investment since January 1st, 2020:

After an initial $1000 investment, the 2020 Top Ten Portfolio is now worth $1,713, up +71%. It is no longer the best performing of the three Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Portfolios, but isn’t too far behind: the 2019 group came in at +72% in July.
Here’s the month by month ROI of the 2020 Top Ten Experiment, hopefully helpful to maintain perspective and provide an overview as we go along:
ROI, month by month
Besides the zombie apocalypse blip in March, so far so good: all green is good to see and a nice change from the all red table you’ll see in the 2018 experiment. The range of monthly ROI for the 2020 Top Ten has been between +7% in March and +71% in July.
So, how does the 2020 Top Ten Experiment compare to the parallel projects?

• 2018 Top Ten Experiment: down -74% (total value $260)
• 2019 Top Ten Experiment: up +72% (total value $1,722)

Taken together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom line:
After a $3000 investment in the 2018, 2019, and 2020 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies, my combined portfolios are worth $3,695‬ ($260+ $1,722 +$1,713).
That’s up about +23% for the three combined portfolios, compared to -10% last month. It also marks the highest ROI of the three combined portfolios since I started keeping track in January 2020. The previous high was +13% back in January 2020.
Lost in the numbers? Here’s a new table to help visualize the progress of the combined portfolios:
Combined $3k ROI
That’s a +23% gain by buying $1k of the cryptos that happened to be in the Top Ten on January 1st, 2018, 2019, and 2020.
But what if I’d gone all in on only one Top Ten crypto for the past three years? While most have come and gone over the life of the experiment, five cryptos have remained in Top Ten for all three years: BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, and LTC. Let’s take a look at those five:
​
ETH then BTC well in front
There you have it: Ethereum (+98%) would have returned the most at this point, followed closely by BTC (+88%). Following this approach with XRP, I would have been down -23%. Many thanks to Reddit user u/sebikun for the idea for a new metric.
So that’s the Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiments snapshot. Let’s take a look at how traditional markets are doing.

Comparison to S&P 500

I’m also tracking the S&P 500 as part of my experiment to have a comparison point to traditional markets. Even with no end to the COVID pandemic in sight, the S&P continued its recovery. In July it moved into positive territory for the year.
S&P breaks even
Over the same time period, the 2020 Top Ten Crypto Portfolio is returning about +71%. The initial $1k investment in crypto is now worth about $1,713.
The money I put into crypto in January 2020 would be worth $1010 had it been redirected to the S&P 500. That’s a $703 difference on a $1k investment, the largest gap in favor of crypto all year.
But that’s just 2020. What if I invested in the S&P 500 the same way I did during the first three years of the Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiments? What I like to call the world’s slowest dollar cost averaging method? Here are the figures:

• $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2018: +$220
• $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2019: +$310
• $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2020: +$10

Taken together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom line for a similar approach with the S&P:
After three $1,000 investments into an S&P 500 index fund in January 2018, 2019, and 2020, my portfolio would be worth $3,540.
That $3,540 is up over +18% since January 2018, compared to a +23% gain of the combined Top Ten Crypto Experiment Portfolios over the same period of time.
Do you know what that means? That means we have a first this month: a 5% swing in favor of the Top Ten Crypto Portfolios!
As you’ll see in the table below, this is the first time since I started recording this metric that crypto has outperformed a hypothetical identical investment in the S&P. This is a big turnaround from the 22% difference in favor of the S&P just last month.
Crypto takes the lead

Implications/Observations:

The crypto market as a whole is up +81% since the beginning of the year compared to the 2020 Top Ten Portfolio which has gained +71%. For the third month in a row, focusing on the Top Ten cryptos has yielded less than the overall market.
This approach has seen mixed results with the 2020 group. For the first four months, the Top Ten outperformed the market as a whole. This was a bit of a surprise, as this strategy did not work out very well in the other experiment years. Although there are a few examples of the Top Ten strategy outperforming the overall market in the 2019 Top Ten Experiment, it’s interesting to note at no point in the first thirty-one months of the Top Ten 2018 Experiment has the approach of focusing on the Top Ten cryptos outperformed the overall market. Not even once.

Conclusion:

July was undoubtedly a strong month in crypto. Where do we go from here? Do we consolidate for a time, fall back down, or continue the ascent? Will Bitcoin dominance continue to decline as altcoins receive more attention?
Final word: Please take care of yourselves and your neighbors. FYI – everyone is your neighbor.
Thanks for reading and for supporting the experiment. I hope you’ve found it helpful. I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports. Keep an eye out for the original 2018 Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiment and the 2019 Top Ten Experiment follow up experiment.

And the Answer is…

A) Dogecoin
Much wow. A TikTok viral challenge drove up the price of Doge nearly 100% in early July.

You have probably read dozens of articles dedicated to this subject before, and likely skipped even more. So why write another one, let alone read it? The short answer is times have changed. Well, times always change. Still, the point is that we may be amidst a paradigm shift in the cryptocurrency space right now even if we don’t feel it yet.
by stealthEX
Such a fundamental change is possible due to a confluence of several factors. Some of these factors are external and therefore not related to crypto. Others are internal and represent the value-oriented nature of cryptocurrencies. It just happened that all of them got activated under specific conditions at a certain point in time, which is today, give or take.

Economic woes in a post-Covid-19 World

You wouldn’t be far from the truth if you claimed that we haven’t yet pulled through the pandemic, to begin with. Unfortunately, it only makes matters worse unless you are a cryptocurrency investor and don’t care for the rest of humanity. Anyway, the damage has been done, and nothing can change that. We are now entering the phase that is technically called “competitive devaluations” and colloquially known as currency wars.
You could also argue that if it didn’t happen at the peak of the coronavirus pandemic, it is not going to happen now. The sad truth is that we are only starting to feel the real pain. Even the deadly coronavirus doesn’t take over the body instantly, while it takes some time on the scale of a few months up to a couple years for the economic disease to spread through the fabric of society, evolve, and then erupt with inflation rates shooting through the roof, among many other nasty things. Please take your seat.
The world reserve fiat, the American dollar, is sinking like Titanic, slowly but surely. We can’t say the same about less lucky currencies, though. We won’t dwell on the Venezuelan bolivar and Zimbabwean dollar as they are altogether beyond redemption, but fiats like the Brazilian real and Russian ruble are also balancing on the brink of another landslide devaluation, which they have seen many in the past. Sharp minds in the cryptocurrency space have been telling us about this development for ages. It all looked like a remote possibility in some distant future that as we felt deep down wouldn’t have a chance to come up in our lifetime.
As it stands, we were wrong, and the events described are now starting to unfold right before our own eyes. In a strange twist of fate, large-scale cryptocurrency adoption is about to occur along with them, but not through some technical breakthroughs and innovation, or even the much-hyped DeFi, but primarily through the failure of conventional financial systems based on fiat currencies. Rest assured, the top dogs in the cryptocurrency pit are well aware of this dynamic, and they are not going to wait any longer.
Grayscale Investments, a multi-billion dollar company behind a host of cryptocurrency trust funds, started to frenziedly buy up bitcoins a couple weeks ago. All in all, it acquired over 17,000 BTC adding to its already quite impressive stash of Bitcoin, now totalling almost 450,000 coins under its management. Love it or leave it, but it amounts to 2.4% of all bitcoins mined to date, including lost, burned, or left for dead as dust in Bitcoin wallets. In essence, it means that their effective share is way higher.
But while Grayscale definitely sits at the top of the cryptocurrency investment chain, it is not the only company that went on a buying spree lately. MicroStrategy, a company largely unknown to the wider public, suddenly got religion and swapped over $400 million of its capital into 38,250 BTC. Even Barry Silbert, CEO of Grayscale, commented on this feat in his tweet.
Twitter, by StealthEX
So whenever there is a hint at price correction, someone comes out of the shadows and picks up a handful of bitcoins from the market propping up the price.
Why are they doing this? You already know the answer.

Paradigm shift

In different words, all that cryptocurrencies had to do was to last long enough until fiat started to fall apart. It does now, and paradoxically such times are also times of great opportunity, Baron Rothschild’s way. The world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, Binance, has been pushing its cryptocurrency payment card since April when it acquired Swipe, a firm focused on crypto-to-fiat payment cards. At the time of the acquisition Swipe already supported 20 cryptocurrencies and fiat transactions in major currencies.
Binance.com, by StaelthEX
For European users the Binance card was officially made available in August, and the exchange plans to enter the US market soon. Given its dominance in the crypto arena, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to expect the surge in the cryptocurrency use as a means of payment thanks to this. It is unlikely that people would spend their precious bitcoins, but the packmaster is not the only member of the pack that Binance handles. Cryptos like Litecoin or Bitcoin Cash can easily become currencies of choice to use with Binance debit cards.
But what truly makes it a game-changer is the current turmoil in the global economic affairs which may turn out to be a once-in-a-lifetime chance for crypto to pick up where fiat currencies leave, or fail, to be exact. On the other hand, it may be a natural development after all, set in stone by the very first Bitcoin transaction and cemented for good when it got confirmed. Now things start to arrange themselves to fit their preordained layout. We have taken our time.
As cryptocurrencies are not internally linked to, or tied by, the lunatic policies of monetary authorities, that is to say, no central bank can ask or force miners to mine more bitcoins, we have the first element in place in the layout for the cryptocurrency mass adoption to occur at the most basic level. In fact, it has always been there, so we just had to wait until the two other elements arrived, even though it took longer than most of us were ready to wait.
The second required element in the grand picture of cryptocurrency adoption is the change in attitude toward wealth evaluation. So far the vast majority of people involved in crypto, including its most die-hard supporters, valued their cryptocurrency holdings in fiat terms. Without doubt, it was the US dollar, regardless of your home currency. But when fiat collapses or enters a long period of runaway inflation, people will be ready for a dramatic change in their approaches toward capital assessment as well as spending habits.
And here comes the most important part where Binance hits the nail on the head. If you are unable to effortlessly spend crypto in your everyday life, the first two components cannot trigger this change in attitude on their own. We need this third element to make use of what has existed and take advantage of what has come around. In a way, what Binance did, and what its competitors are no doubt going to do as well if they don’t want to miss out on the opportunity, appears to be the part that snugly snaps into place when we finally get there.
With Binance payment card, you can “buy the things you love with crypto”. So now the ball is in your court to support the full-scale cryptocurrency adoption coming up. Kidding aside, with fiat turning into trash by leaps and bounds all over the globe, this looks like a very enticing payment option for both the crypto purists and the unbanked. We have seen quite a few such cards in the past, but Binance seems to be adamant on making its variety really popular and actually usable. And then you can ride volatility waves to your financial benefit.
If Binance succeeds, that may herald a new era of cryptocurrency adoption, a breakthrough of sorts after so many years of stagnation in this department.

Repercussions and ramifications

It is not like only we, traders and investors alike, see these trends. Governments are also taking notice and paying close attention. They can’t remove cryptocurrencies and they can’t help inflating their national currencies. However, they can still crack down massively on this and similar endeavors, trying to nip them in the bud. We don’t know yet what Uncle Sam is going to say but some muslim countries have been quite vocal in this regard.
For example, Egypt has issued a fetva which prohibits bitcoin transactions as being against Sharia, an Islamic religious law. Another mostly Islamic country, Indonesia, has banned the use of cryptocurrencies as a means of payment. Russia, although not Islamic yet, is hellbent on effectively outlawing most cryptocurrency operations despite passing earlier a law on digital assets which is essentially neutral to crypto.
To conclude, we must be aware that once things get serious and governments see that their monetary supremacy is being threatened, that they can no longer play their favorite game of inflation tax, they will leave no stone unturned to prevent mass use of crypto as an alternative means of payment. And cryptocurrency payment cards are hands down one of the best tools available for this use on a down-to-earth level, groceries and whatnot.
Now you know what their target will be.
And don’t forget if you need to exchange your coins StealthEX is here for you. We provide a selection of more than 300 coins and constantly updating the cryptocurrency list so that our customers will find a suitable option. Our service does not require registration and allows you to remain anonymous. Why don’t you check it out? Just go to StealthEX and follow these easy steps:
✔ Choose the pair and the amount for your exchange. For example BTC to ETH.
✔ Press the “Start exchange” button.
✔ Provide the recipient address to which the coins will be transferred.
✔ Move your cryptocurrency for the exchange.
✔ Receive your coins.
Follow us on Medium, Twitter, Facebook, and Reddit to get StealthEX.io updates and the latest news about the crypto world. For all requests message us via [email protected].
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Original article was posted on https://stealthex.io/blog/2020/10/06/cryptocurrency-adoption-a-breakthrough/

https://preview.redd.it/18y55cdcjaq51.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=51a0c388cc7df6aba8670188d3c97f206e108a6d
PrimeBit is the most convenient way to start crypto derivatives trading anytime, anywhere. Derivative instruments are very popular to trade these days because of ease and flexibility. Virtually anyone can be a trader. But how does derivatives trading work? And how does it differ from the traditional spot trading? Knowing the difference is vital to gain success in the cryptocurrency trading field.
Two main terms are common in the crypto trading world:

• Spot trading
• Derivatives trading

These are forms of trading designed for traders and investors to make profits out of digital coin prices.
Spot Trading
Spot trading is considered as the most basic form of investment in the world of cryptocurrencies. It involves buying a cryptocurrency like Bitcoin and then holding it until its value rises. You are free to trade any of the cryptocurrencies that you have against the US dollar or other currencies at any time based on the market trends or based on your trading strategies.
The coin that you bought is your own and can be stored in your crypto wallet (or in trading platforms) for safekeeping until such time that you sell them when the price surges. You can also use it to buy altcoins (or other cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin) that you think will rise in value in the future. Because you are buying or selling actual crypto, which is limited in supply, traders can trade with low levels of leverage. In spot trading, you can use the crypto anyway you want since it is yours.
Spot Trading Benefits

• You own the crypto directly.
• You can buy other altcoins.
• You can use the crypto for other things such as paying for goods or services.

Derivatives Trading
Derivatives trading is also referred to as trading of contracts. It is different in some ways from spot trading in that you will not need to own the asset and store it directly before you can trade it. Instead, you trade contracts derived from this asset using trading platforms or brokers. Derivatives trading is convenient because traders will not worry about the security of coins but still earn from their price actions. Owning crypto wallets entails security issues and additional fees.
When trading derivatives like Bitcoin contracts (or BTCUSD), you are not buying or selling actual Bitcoins. However, the value of these Bitcoin contracts follows the market price of Bitcoin against the US dollar. As the Bitcoin price rises or falls so does the value of the contract. You profit from the difference in the price changes from the moment that you opened a position (buy or sell) to the time that you closed it. A unique element of derivatives trading is that traders can easily sell “short,” which means that you can earn both from a rising and a falling market.
Derivatives come with higher levels of leverage. Trading on leverage or margin means that you can borrow funds from your broker to trade in bigger amounts or trade multiple currencies than you normally could. It is a great way to diversify a trading portfolio. How does it work? For example, when you trade Bitcoin contracts worth $10 with 10x leverage, you can buy a Bitcoin contract worth $100 with only that initial $10 as margin. Thus, there are greater profit opportunities for traders of derivative instruments.
Derivatives Trading Benefits

• You profit from cryptocurrencies without directly owning them.
• You trade in a highly liquid market.
• You earn in both rising and falling markets.
• Your earning potential is limitless with higher leverage.
• You can easily trade more instruments in a single broker.

Conclusion
Both spot trading and derivatives trading have their benefits and give the traders opportunities to profit. However, most traders nowadays prefer derivatives trading because the trading conditions are much more favorable. There is no need to own the asset being traded and the fees involved are very low compared with spot trading. Due to the higher leverage offered, derivatives trading is very attractive to many traders.
PrimeBit is a derivatives exchange where traders can trade crypto contracts on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Litecoin with up to 200x leverage. Trade anytime on mobile or desktop. Want to check out our platform? Sign up today and get a complimentary demo account where you can look around and trade with zero risk. If you’re a competitive trader, try your skills in our PrimeBit Demo Trading Contest! You won’t have to deposit anything. Just trade on your demo account, earn big, and you can win from the $5000 prize pool. Check PrimeBit now!

[Today's Hot Tips]
1. [The total market value based on ERC-20 tokens has exceeded the total market value of Ethereum, and the market value gap reaches a record high]
Research by the on-chain analysis company Santiment shows that the total market value based on ERC-20 tokens has exceeded the market value of Ethereum itself, which is the highest market value gap between ERC-20 tokens and Ethereum. The current total market value of all ERC-20 assets is $46.7 billion, while the market value of Ethereum is only slightly higher than $41 billion. Two similar short-term fluctuations have occurred this year, with the longest lasting fluctuation occurring in July. Ethereum's price surge in August brought the market cap to more than $50 billion, but subsequent adjustments made the market cap of ERC-20 tokens exceed it again.
2. [TEDA pre-issuance of 1 billion ERC20 USDT, perhaps for USDT switching]
The Chainsmap monitoring system of Chains Guard Technology that in the early morning of September 11, Beijing time, TEDA added 1 billion USDT to the ERC20 USDT pre-issuance pool. This means that once the relevant instructions are executed, the actual ERC20 USDT will be issued. However, judging from the similar large-scale additional issuance of TEDA before, it is usually for switching between different standards of USDT. This type of switching often occurs after TEDA has issued a large number of USDT in TRON. In August, a similar operation of $1 billion was carried out. Judging from the recent situation, since September, TEDA has successively conducted multiple large USDT issuances in TRON (the total amount is exactly 1 billion USDT), and the phenomenon is similar to the previous law.
3. [European Central Bank President: The European Central Bank will soon announce the results of its research on digital currencies]
According to news from Sina Finance on September 11, in an online event of the Bundesbank on Thursday evening, European Central Bank President Lagarde said that a team of officials of the bank will soon come to a conclusion whether it should create a currency for the euro. Digital version. Lagarde said that so far, the euro system has not yet decided whether to introduce a digital euro.
[Today's market analysis]
Bitcoin (BTC)BTC oscillated in a narrow range around 10350 USDT in the early hours of this morning, and continued to fall at around 2 o'clock, with the lowest falling to 10249.6 USDT. Afterwards, BTC rebounded slightly and returned to above 10300 USDT. Currently, it continues to adjust in a narrow range near 10350 USDT. Most mainstream currencies follow the trend of the broader market, and rebound slightly after falling to varying degrees in the early morning. BTC is currently trading at 10260.6 USDT on LOEx Global, a decrease of 1.55% in 24h.
Although the buying power at the bottom is increasing, and the selling power at the top is increasing at the same time, it is difficult to distinguish between long and short, so it has formed a current shock trend.
How long will this situation last? This is a problem that many investors worry about. Whether it is rising or falling is hard to figure out. This kind of market is simply a torment for friends who do cash. However, the current shock market is a good opportunity for contracting friends to do band. As long as you grasp the rhythm, overestimate and underestimate, you can make money regardless of long or short.
Operation suggestions:
Support level: the first support level is 9800 points, the second support level is 9500 integers;
Resistance level: the first resistance level is 10500 points, the second resistance level is 11000 points.
LOEx is registered in Seychelles. It is a global one-stop digital asset service platform with business distribution nodes in 20 regions around the world. It has been exempted from Seychelles and Singapore Monetary Authority (MAS) digital currency trading services. Provide services and secure encrypted digital currency trading environment for 2 million community members in 24 hours.
https://preview.redd.it/rav10fiirgm51.png?width=609&format=png&auto=webp&s=42c4a4c3d6a6fae69ffa016bbc51ec938ed7a2e9

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Decentralized Finance, or DeFi as it is popularly known, refers to the ecosystem created by decentralized digital financial institutions that are not only democratic but are also capable of operating autonomously, independent of several national and international regulations. DeFi has been garnering a lot of attention these days from everyday investors and institutions alike as more and more people are looking at non-traditional instruments of investments.
In simple terms, DeFi is an attempt to decentralize core traditional financial processes like trading, lending, investing, wealth management, payment and insurance using the blockchain.
DeFi platforms do not need to follow the highly rigid legal system which governs financial systems across the world. This cuts down many hurdles making the process fast and effortless.
Why DeFi is Hot These Days?
The current global scenario is not good for the economy and many nations are facing the brunt of extended lockdowns and near stoppage of almost all economic activities. Spending is down and people are wary of the security and safety of their investments. This has led them to look at alternative methods to create wealth and secure their savings. And DeFi has all the right ingredients to cater to them.
As of the time of writing this article, the total value locked (TVL) in DeFi applications stands at roughly 8.9 billion USD. Now consider the fact that this figure had just reached 1 billion USD in the first week of February. This means a close to 900% rise in TVL in less than seven months. This shows the immense attraction of investors towards DeFi applications.
Today, more than 250 DeFi ecosystems function on the Ethereum, Bitcoin and EOS networks, with multiple asset management tools helping investors to secure their assets.
With High Returns Comes High Risk
While returns on investments have been exciting, there are inherent risks as well, but that comes with any kind of investments, even traditional. With their rising value, many blockchain projects have become very attractive investment options in recent times. This tends to be the right time to tap into these projects for a bumper return later.
While, like many other sectors, there are many fraudulent and underachieving projects, they can be a good option for an investor’s asset portfolio if chosen correctly. In fact, many analysts have gone on record with their concerns about what ill-conceived DeFi projects pumped up by ill-informed investors can mean for the crypto sector in particular and the financial market in general.
In this respect, education about these assets is very important for new investors who are trying to enter this sector. Informed and experienced investors can not only leverage more promising projects but also help the crypto sector grow in general. Yet, unfortunately, there are not many options to learn the process of investing in the crypto sector, about the potentials and limitations of new trends, and about hot financial products in the crypto sector like the DeFi projects.
Bithumb Global Provides a Solution
It is here that Bithumb Global can come in with its innovative products. While Bithumb Global comes from the house of one of Korea’s topmost and most trusted cryptocurrency exchanges — Bithumb. Bithumb has always been an innovator and this innovative DNA is evident in its many novel financial solutions that benefits all kinds of investors.
Bithumb Global Learning is the latest product from the company which tends to break the barrier between investment in practice and learning about investing. The service provides a platform for new investors to get a degree of handholding from experts as well as a chance to learn from peers at the same level of experience.
This service enables users to learn about specific projects which are advertised on the platform and about the opportunities of investing in them. While the users can actually invest in these projects through this service there is a safety net for investors who have failed to grasp the extent of risk involved in the investments. Moreover, the platform is designed to incentivize learning about the projects and the principles of investment in general.
The users who are able to show a consistently higher degree of learning will be rewarded with the tokens of the project and their investments will be leveraged accordingly. However, the users who have failed to demonstrate adequate understanding will be barred from participating in the investment event which will be organized periodically, the investment of such users will be nullified for their own good.
Such platforms help users to learn about new trends in the sector like the DeFi movement and understand them through practical engagement with such projects. In other words, they get a chance to actually become a part of these movements.
Previous Projects and Their Performance with Primary Listing on Bithumb Global

• OM Token

Mantra DAO was a very interesting project which tried to give the financial control of the company in the hands of the community members and was listed on the Bithumb Global Learning platform. The OM token was pumped 15X after pre-sale. It soared from 0.04$ to 0.6$. 18,000,000 OM were sold out in 2 days on the BG Staking.

• CREDIT Token

It is a platform for cross-chain derivative issuance and peer-to-peer lending. The token saw a more than 3X surge after its primary listing on the Bithumb Global and is currently trading at more than 2X listing price. The project got more than 463,000+ votes on BG learning and the staking interest for the project was up to 88%.

• SXP Token

Swipe is a reputed blockchain-based payments platform, which aims to increase the usability of crypto assets for everyday transactions. After the project was listed on the Bithumb Global, the token was pumped 5X.
​
https://preview.redd.it/sksg93br6fm51.png?width=1024&format=png&auto=webp&s=c6c03400e5aec1b4837b979b8aff3ad2244058b3
Welcome to the BG DeFi Paradise
DeFi is gradually changing the face of the financial markets through its innovative decentralized solutions. While risks remain, learning consistently from experts can negate instances of losses, while leveraging real information to gain profits. Bithumb Global’s services have not only given opportunities for new investors, but it has helped DeFi projects get higher recognition as well. Bithumb Global continues to blaze the fintech innovation trail with novel offerings that will lead the decentralized finance movement.

https://preview.redd.it/9sqq6pimc1m51.png?width=959&format=png&auto=webp&s=78d9d49c50e278dfe9b9644fbbd9a5d381635165
Decentralized Finance, or DeFi as it is popularly known, refers to the ecosystem created by decentralized digital financial institutions that are not only democratic but are also capable of operating autonomously, independent of several national and international regulations. DeFi has been garnering a lot of attention these days from everyday investors and institutions alike as more and more people are looking at non-traditional instruments of investments.
In simple terms, DeFi is an attempt to decentralize core traditional financial processes like trading, lending, investing, wealth management, payment and insurance using the blockchain.
DeFi platforms do not need to follow the highly rigid legal system which governs financial systems across the world. This cuts down many hurdles making the process fast and effortless.
Why DeFi is Hot These Days?
The current global scenario is not good for the economy and many nations are facing the brunt of extended lockdowns and near stoppage of almost all economic activities. Spending is down and people are wary of the security and safety of their investments. This has led them to look at alternative methods to create wealth and secure their savings. And DeFi has all the right ingredients to cater to them.
As of the time of writing this article, the total value locked (TVL) in DeFi applications stands at roughly 8.9 billion USD. Now consider the fact that this figure had just reached 1 billion USD in the first week of February. This means a close to 900% rise in TVL in less than seven months. This shows the immense attraction of investors towards DeFi applications.
Today, more than 250 DeFi ecosystems function on the Ethereum, Bitcoin and EOS networks, with multiple asset management tools helping investors to secure their assets.
With High Returns Comes High Risk
While returns on investments have been exciting, there are inherent risks as well, but that comes with any kind of investments, even traditional. With their rising value, many blockchain projects have become very attractive investment options in recent times. This tends to be the right time to tap into these projects for a bumper return later.
While, like many other sectors, there are many fraudulent and underachieving projects, they can be a good option for an investor’s asset portfolio if chosen correctly. In fact, many analysts have gone on record with their concerns about what ill-conceived DeFi projects pumped up by ill-informed investors can mean for the crypto sector in particular and the financial market in general.
In this respect, education about these assets is very important for new investors who are trying to enter this sector. Informed and experienced investors can not only leverage more promising projects but also help the crypto sector grow in general. Yet, unfortunately, there are not many options to learn the process of investing in the crypto sector, about the potentials and limitations of new trends, and about hot financial products in the crypto sector like the DeFi projects.
Bithumb Global Provides a Solution
It is here that Bithumb Global can come in with its innovative products. While Bithumb Global comes from the house of one of Korea’s topmost and most trusted cryptocurrency exchanges — Bithumb. Bithumb has always been an innovator and this innovative DNA is evident in its many novel financial solutions that benefits all kinds of investors.
Bithumb Global Learning is the latest product from the company which tends to break the barrier between investment in practice and learning about investing. The service provides a platform for new investors to get a degree of handholding from experts as well as a chance to learn from peers at the same level of experience.
This service enables users to learn about specific projects which are advertised on the platform and about the opportunities of investing in them. While the users can actually invest in these projects through this service there is a safety net for investors who have failed to grasp the extent of risk involved in the investments. Moreover, the platform is designed to incentivize learning about the projects and the principles of investment in general.
The users who are able to show a consistently higher degree of learning will be rewarded with the tokens of the project and their investments will be leveraged accordingly. However, the users who have failed to demonstrate adequate understanding will be barred from participating in the investment event which will be organized periodically, the investment of such users will be nullified for their own good.
Such platforms help users to learn about new trends in the sector like the DeFi movement and understand them through practical engagement with such projects. In other words, they get a chance to actually become a part of these movements.
Previous Projects and Their Performance with Primary Listing on Bithumb Global

• OM Token

Mantra DAO was a very interesting project which tried to give the financial control of the company in the hands of the community members and was listed on the Bithumb Global Learning platform. The OM token was pumped 15X after pre-sale. It soared from 0.04$ to 0.6$. 18,000,000 OM were sold out in 2 days on the BG Staking.

• CREDIT Token

It is a platform for cross-chain derivative issuance and peer-to-peer lending. The token saw a more than 3X surge after its primary listing on the Bithumb Global and is currently trading at more than 2X listing price. The project got more than 463,000+ votes on BG learning and the staking interest for the project was up to 88%.

• SXP Token

Swipe is a reputed blockchain-based payments platform, which aims to increase the usability of crypto assets for everyday transactions. After the project was listed on the Bithumb Global, the token was pumped 5X.
https://preview.redd.it/0mm13xcoc1m51.png?width=1024&format=png&auto=webp&s=bb40148a5e2cb897f04097bf5a4176c970c7750d
Welcome to the BG DeFi Paradise
DeFi is gradually changing the face of the financial markets through its innovative decentralized solutions. While risks remain, learning consistently from experts can negate instances of losses, while leveraging real information to gain profits. Bithumb Global’s services have not only given opportunities for new investors, but it has helped DeFi projects get higher recognition as well. Bithumb Global continues to blaze the fintech innovation trail with novel offerings that will lead the decentralized finance movement.

​
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Ethereum cryptocurrency that comes second in terms of capitalization on the crypto market is traditionally seen as fast and profitable. However, over the last few weeks it's had a rough patch. Since early August, the network has had huge queues of transactions pending processing while fees have skyrocketed and surpassed the historical high.
The main issue though is that even fees of a few dollars per transfer don't help get rid of the“traffic jams”. The cause of this is numerous DeFi projects and a huge number of financial pyramids based on the Ethereum platform. Both generate excessive load on the network.
The situation is downright unpleasant, and our users might question whether the UMI network could face a similar challenge? We'd like to assure you it could not. The UMI network is by default protected against these problems — it cannot have “traffic jams”, fees or financial pyramids. But first things first.
How has the Ethereum network ground to a halt?
In its report dated August 4, Arcane Research that provides analysis within the field of cryptocurrency stated that over the previous week the daily size of transaction fees in the Ethereum network has surged up to a record high for over two and a half years. On August 3, the median value #%D0%9F%D1%80%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B5%D1%80_%D0%B8%D1%81%D0%BF%D0%BE%D0%BB%D1%8C%D0%B7%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B8%D1%8F)of the fee amounted to $0.82, with the overall amount of transaction fees totaling $2 mln. However, it only signaled the start of real problems.
Over the next week, fees continued to grow and by August 11 the median fee value almost doubled equaling $1.57. Larry Cermak, an expert at a big analytical and news-making crypto portal The Block, wrote in his August 15 tweet that over a week the total amount of transaction fees in the Ethereum network totaled $34.5 mln, having surpassed its historical high. Meanwhile, in the Bitcoin network that is seen as too expensive the fees were almost four times lower at $9 mln.
The total fee amount paid by cryptocurrency users over a week:

• Ethereum — $34.5 mln;
• Bitcoin — $9 mln;
• Monero — $2,240;
• Tezos — $1,876;
• Cardano — $1,615;
• XRP — $1,138;
• BSV — $1,102;
• Stellar — $1,059;
• Bitcoin Cash — $1,027;
• UMI — $0. Let's talk about it a little later.

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https://preview.redd.it/z9azd9v6alj51.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=25c365d6e14665ecda4a2b8d19b2fc57dd5cde1e
Historical Growth Chart for Ethereum Fees. Source
The existing situation shows that Ethereum is actually not as fast and profitable as commonly cited. Additionally, this could happen to almost any cryptocurrency except UMI that charges no fees whatsoever. We will tell you why.
Why have these problems emerged?
There is nothing unoriginal: the Ethereum network simply can't handle an increased load. Arcane Research analysts consider that a principal cause of this situation is the constantly increasing number of the DeFi ecosystem projects built on the Ethereum blockchain. Their number is growing all the time which causes the overload of the network. As of August 12, the total amount of funds in DeFi applications reached $4.3 billion which is 19.5% higher than that in the past week. At the time of writing this article, the amount surged to $6.21 billion. You can see the current data here. What is the most unpleasant about DeFi protocols is that a lot of them are scam projects.
Which is not the worst part though. There is also another factor that significantly slows down the Ethereum network. There are a lot of pyramid-like projects that are built on the EOS platform and use smart contracts. One of them is SmartWay Forsage, which regularly overloads the network with a large number of transactions, causes traffic jams, and, consequently, leads to increased fees (keep in mind that Ethereum miners choose transactions with a higher commission). Vitalik Buterin, the co-founder of Ethereum, revealed his disapproval of the SmartWay Forsage methodology and asked them to "leave and not pollute Ethereum ecology in the future". However, the project is slow to do this — it continues to deceive users.
This is only the tip of the iceberg of scam projects which abounds on the EOS network –– they continually emerge, work for a while, then go down as scams and are replaced with new ones. This never-ending stream of "investment projects" based on the Ponzi scheme overloads the system. This is the reason why Adam Back, a pioneer of the crypto industry and founder of the technology company Blockstream, equated Ethereum with such infamous projects as Onecoin and Bitconnect. Adam Back's solid dig at Ethereum became the subject of much debate among crypto enthusiasts.
Of course, it all doesn't mean that Ethereum is a bad cryptocurrency. On the contrary, it has a lot of advantages over other coins. But all that has happened exposes Ethereum's faults which must be eliminated. The problem is that they may not be fixable. It is far from certain that the developers will be able to get rid of all the defects as the system has huge scalability problems.
The crypto community has to admit that Ethereum, like other first-generation cryptocurrencies, has issues with capacity, fees, and scalability and is gradually becoming obsolete.
2020 is the time for young innovative cryptocurrencies such as UMI.
UMI is the flagship of new-generation cryptocurrencies.
In real fact, any cryptocurrency could face it. Each cryptocurrency charges fees which typically surge when the network is overloaded or the price is going up. Everyone will remember 2017 when in line with price growth and the network's overload Bitcoin transaction fee reached a high of around $40.
But when it comes to UMI, it works the other way round. The UMI network's advantages are high capacity, no fees, and scaling possibilities. It uses the best and fastest crypto industry solutions and excludes all inefficient methods by default. Smart optimization in combination with the Proof-of-Authority technology operating on the master node basis enables almost instant payments.
At the stage of network testing, an incredibly high capacity was achieved:

• up to 4,369 transactions per second;
• up to 262,140 transactions per minute;
• up to 15,728,400 transactions per hour;
• up to 377,481,600 transactions per day.

Ethereum processes about 20 transactions per second. It means that the UMI network can process transactions that Ethereum processes over a year in 1 to 5 days — and with no fees.
https://preview.redd.it/rwohnov3alj51.png?width=1125&format=png&auto=webp&s=4329b75c0bd8b7a22276b529f5ca433d17a0874f
The UMI network can process transactions that Ethereum processes over a year in a few days and with no fees. More details
What is more important is that less than 0.001% of the network's overall potential is used now. The UMI network has a lot of reserve capacity and can handle hundreds of thousands of times heavier load. Moreover, with scaling possibilities, UMI can keep up with the times. The UMI code ensures the safe introduction of any upgrades — the network can be easily modified and scaled with cutting edge technology solutions. In other words, traffic jams will never pose a problem for us. UMI will instantly process all transactions, with no fees. Always.
https://preview.redd.it/t0068th0alj51.png?width=544&format=png&auto=webp&s=019f46ec8c093480c4638cf098312a5a146134a8
A real-time speedometer displays the number of transactions processed by the UMI network per second. Link
Additionally, unlike Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies, the UMI's staking smart contract prevents possibilities of any pyramid schemes, meaning eliminates their negative influence. Our staking is completely safe and secured against scammers. Read more about this in our article. Any UMI staking structure could work forever. In other words, you can multiply your coins at a rate of up to 40% per month for an indefinitely long period of time.
UMI doesn't inherit the disadvantages of the first-generation cryptocurrencies. This is an innovative, carefully designed network based on state-of-the-art technologies. UMI is an ambitious step toward the future. And we're making it together right now!
Sincerely yours, UMI team

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With UMI staking, anyone anywhere in the world can generate new coins at the rate of up to 40 % a month, or up to 5,669 % a year, with no risk of falling victim to fraudsters. It means new opportunities for humanity which never existed before. However, many people who are used to miserable interests on bank deposits and financial pyramids that last a few months at most cannot understand what makes this possible. How can you safely earn up to 40 % a month with no risk of losing it all?
Sceptics cannot wrap their minds around this which makes them suspect there’s a catch to it. Therefore, it should come as no surprise that you can find various myths about UMI's “deadly issue” on forums and social networks. The most popular among them say that you simply cannot ensure long-term operation with this kind of “super-high income” and no one has any idea what will happen to this cryptocurrency in 10 or more years. Here's a forecast from sceptics, briefly: “deposits” with this percentage are simply impossible, it will inevitably cause hyperinflation, UMI cryptocurrency will devalue, and will share the fate of currencies in some of the less fortunate countries, such as Zimbabwe or Venezuela.
To counter these allegations, we've prepared a detailed article with arguments dispelling all these myths, nullifying all “forecasts” and putting the lid on this issue. Here we go!
What's the value behind the forecasts?
First of all, 10 or more years is too much of a long term, and forecasting so far in advance is simply impossible. Don't take us wrong here: it's not just about cryptocurrencies; it's about anything in the world. There was a time when people thought pagers, faxes, and landline phones had cheerful prospects, but look at what happened to them. They have been replaced by smartphones and the Internet accessible to all which no one believed was possible in the first place. New technologies emerge out of the blue and transform the world beyond recognition. The old — something everyone is used to — is replaced with something new and more
convenient. Something better.
10 years ago people believed in developing bank technologies, but then, all of a sudden, Bitcoin was created and transformed people's understanding of financial payments. It turned out anyone in the world can make payments with no intermediaries and generate new digital money. It's true that Bitcoin is not perfect, but millions use it all over the world. This number is also growing fast with each passing day.
Do you remember forecasts made for Bitcoin when it first appeared? Both ordinary people and respected world-class experts predicted it would soon die. No one believed it could last for even 10 years.
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https://preview.redd.it/q1kzcxfw2ik51.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=17a12d73b9046a357cf6ecd77253472215c8bb24
Typical article predicting the end of Bitcoin from respected mass media. Source.
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Here're some graphic examples from the leading world-class mass media:
“That's the End of Bitcoin.” Forbes, 2011, BTC price — $15.
“Bitcoin is headed to the ash heap.” USA Today, 2015, BTC price — $208.
“R.I.P., Bitcoin. It’s time to move on.” The Washington Post, 2016, BTC price — $382.
“Stay away from bitcoin and ethereum — they are complete garbage.” This is garbage." MarketWatch, 2017, BTC price — $2,345.
“Is Bitcoin Going To Zero?” Forbes, 2018, BTC price — $3,432.
In 2020, the BTC price is almost $12,000. The respected mass media have “declared Bitcoin dead” over 400 times (!!!) referring to its lack of backing, high issue rate, super-high price growth, and the like — just like the skeptics “declaring UMI dead” right now. However, despite all the discouraging forecasts, Bitcoin continues to successfully grow and rapidly gain in popularity.
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Over 12 years, Bitcoin has been declared dead 381 times, but it only grows stronger with each passing year. Source.
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All of the above is proof that you shouldn't put blind trust in various forecasts, even coming from respected sources. Forecasts are mere opinions and arguments, but no one can know for
sure what will happen in 10, 100, or 1,000 years. No expert can know that. Similarly, no one knows what will happen to UMI many years from now.
UMI can solve any issues on the fly
We cannot know the future, but we did all we could to make our coin last forever. Most existing cryptocurrencies have a very important problem — they cannot support high-quality growth and rapidly become obsolete.
To explain this, we'd like to quote our Whitepaper:
"Despite the apparition of new technology solutions, the Bitcoin blockchain still holds only about 2,000 transactions, and it takes about 10 minutes to create a block. In 11 years, developers still did not manage to come to an agreement and implement a solution that would allow scaling the system and upgrade performance.
Most other cryptocurrencies face a similar problem. They are launched and keep operating in an almost initial state even after numerous innovative solutions become available. For example, the Ethereum network has been attempting to switch to the PoS algorithm for over two years now, but due to code complexity, security threats, and issues of reaching consensus, this causes great inconvenience."
https://preview.redd.it/ezxzrpx43ik51.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=207f8a27a59fac760fc541dae6abd30d148296f5
Screenshot of a page in the UMI Whitepaper. Have you read it? It answers a lot of questions. Link.
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Bitcoin itself is technically obsolete. This is besides the fact that it has a load of other problems. For instance, BTC is supposed to completely stop coin mining in 2140, meaning miners will lose motivation to support the network. What happens then? The hope is that the main source of income for miners will be transfer fees, but will they want to maintain powerful equipment for a reward in the form of small fees? If fees are big, will people want to pay those? Will they find a different solution? Will users just leave the Bitcoin ecosystem and join more high-tech cryptocurrencies like UMI?
When we designed UMI, we accounted for all these issues and launched a promising project with a conveniently scalable ecosystem. Even if UMI faces some challenges in the future, we will make amendments as the network grows. We will act as appropriate judging from the project's current status. They will be based on the situation and the current state of the project.
It's true that upgrade decisions have been and are being made by all leading crypto projects, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, but UMI supports really safe and rapid innovation. The network can be easily modified and scaled with cutting edge technology solutions. While other cryptocurrencies simply become obsolete, we can handle all kinds of challenges on the fly. The UMI network will grow and improve to be always up to date, keep up with the times, and prevent problems in 10, 100, or 1,000 years.
At this point, the UMI network is in excellent shape, and the smart contract offers you relevant and actionable staking opportunities. We've thought out every detail, and the brisk growth of our community proves it best of all.
There is no "deadly inflation"
And, lastly, let's bring an issue with supposedly too-high emission to a close. UMI is typically accused of paying a too high reward for staking — as much as 40% a month, or 5,669% a year — which no one and nothing else in this world can pay. Eventually, it might end up with inflation as it happened in Zimbabwe and Venezuela, etc.,
Let us look at real facts. Those who consider a 40% monthly growth impossible should look at bitcoin again as the most outstanding example which has proven that nothing is impossible. Imagine how many times your deposit would have grown if 10 years ago you had bought bitcoins or inexpensive mining equipment producing a reward of 50 BTC several times a day.
Please consider the following:
In March 2010, BitcoinMarket.com started operating as the first bitcoin exchange, and 1 BTC cost a lot less than a cent — $0.003.
At the time of writing this article, the price for 1BTC was about $12,000.
It means those who bought bitcoins 10 years ago have increased their "deposit" by nearly 400,000,000% (!!!). Four hundred million percent in ten years! This is a real fact.
Those who bought bitcoins when the price was a few cents or dollars also achieved the perfect result by increasing their "deposit" by thousand or million times.
Well, now the percentage in UMI staking doesn't seem so crazy, does it? The only difference
is that BTC "deposit" grows in line with the BTC price while UMI deposit growth is ensured the growth of the number of UMI coins, which in turn doesn't prevent the price from surging. In fact, both cases demonstrate a multiple growth of the "deposit".
All of the above is proof that the reason for inflation in Zimbabwe, Venezuela, etc is a bad economy, not a high emission. In late March. roughly speaking, in one day, the FED (U.S. Federal Reserve System) released 2.2 trillion dollars to support the economy during the coronavirus pandemic. Similar financial injections are regular in the USA, the country which is the most advanced world's economy.
These facts indicate that UMI has no "deadly issue" at all and, unlike the USA, it doesn't "print" anything.
Here is bare statistics form the UMI blockchain:
The UMI cryptocurrency was launched on June 1. Since the launch, it's been 3 months.
18,000,000 UMI coins were initially issued.
In total, there are now about 18,800,000 UMI coins.
In other words, in three months, the total number of UMI coins increased by only 4.4%. Does it look like "deadly inflation"?
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https://preview.redd.it/gsdjbwp83ik51.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=8d4591a24b3ddc63f8501f1b7fe7a4c02b7da89c
In 3 months, the number of UMI coins has shown a few percent increase. Source.
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Let's move on:
We'd like to reiterate that the total number of UMI coins is almost 18,800,000.
There are about 14,500,000 coins on the genesis address today.
Almost 4,000,000 coins are involved in staking.
Thus, only 300,000 UMI (!)are freely circulated on the market. The remaining 18,500,000 coins are either used in staking or have not yet been released to the market.
https://preview.redd.it/f7b28jid3ik51.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=5ff8338121ebfe398cfb498a0cfcc00446ea6225
The number of coins stored on the genesis address at the time of writing the article. Source.
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In real fact, UMI has no super-high emission. This fact has been proven. For a three-month period, which is a quarter of a year, the number of UMI has hardly changed and equals about 1.5% of the total number of coins on the market.
The truth is that UMI economy depends on a lot of factors. For example, burning 50,000 coins to create a structure. However, from a more general point of view, the UMI economic model itself is designed to encourage people to "save" rather than sell UMI coins. This is a crucial point that allows us to make progress, even with a high emission.
Moreover, it will take a billion-dollar staking structure that will be able to provide the highest possible emission on the UMI network a lot of years to appear. While it doesn't happen, all these forecasts can be regarded as irrelevant for today. Keep in mind that a 40% monthly profit will be available to the most successful structures and only after many years of development. To have your coins increased by 40% per month, your structure must have over 50 (!) times more coins than the number of coins initially generated by the network. And since this structure will do everything possible for the benefit of the UMI cryptocurrency, even 40% per month will not pose a risk to UMI's sustainable development.
Conclusions are as follows:
UMI offers no kind of "killing sky-high returns". Please don't take this myth seriously. UMI is growing. The current smart contract offers reasonable and up-to-date opportunities for UMI staking and poses no problem. If, however, a problem arises — we have all the tools to find an immediate solution. All these negative forecasts are not worth a brass farthing. They always have been and always will be. At all times and in all places. But they are highly unlikely to come true. Bitcoin outsmarted the most reputable and shrewd financial analysts. Why don't UMI, which is a lot more advanced than bitcoin, try to do the same?
UMI is a decentralized, strong, and high-tech network. It can exist the way it is now forever. But as it grows, it will improve to be always up to date, keep up with the times and prevent any problems. We are contributing to a great thing — we're creating a free economic system that will profitable for the entire human family. This is an opportunity to overcome social inequality and make regular people financially independent. So let's make every effort to make things go well. Ignore all evil-wishers and their predictions. Just join other users and go towards your dream. Then we will certainly succeed in it all.
Sincerely yours, UMI team

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Meanwhile, Rumors Of ETH 2.0 Testnet Going Live Gave A Further Boost To Ethereum’s Price, Despite Growing Gas Fees
The world’s second-largest cryptocurrency to date, Ethereum, managed to reach a price point as high as $278 on Coinbase in what it seems a week of upwards momentum for Ethereum.
Ethereum’s price broke above the $250 resistance level on Wednesday, July 22, with strong bullish sentiment and growing trading volumes. The recent DeFi boom also contributed to the price surge, as on Thursday, July 23, Ethereum spiked several times, securing both the $250 and $260 zones, which can be considered as a support, if a negative correction occurs.
Crypto experts consolidated upon the statement that if Ethereum secures the $285 resistance, the crypto sector may see the second-largest crypto to skyrocket past $300, which would mean a new 52-week high, according to data from Cryptobrowser.io
However, the upward momentum may be put to a halt, as transaction fees, otherwise known as gas, are exponentially growing. The current gas price situation made Vitalilk Buterin, Ethereum’s co-founder, to bring a proposal for restructuring gas fees across the blockchain. Interestingly, the gas prices increase didn’t stop Ethereum’s upwards rally. Further, one of the biggest gas spenders, Tether, also accounts for the increase in network usage, as 59% of all circulating USDT tokens are currently on Ethereum’s network. Ethereum also surpassed the leading cryptocurrency to date, Bitcoin, in terms of network usage.
DeFi also accounts for the increased Ethereum network usage, as the total value locked (TVL) in DeFi projects hit a new all-time high of $3,5 billion, with a peak of 4 million ETH tokens locked in DeFi apps. The rapid growth means DeFi made an 87% increase in TVL in July alone, with a whopping 400% TVL increase since the start of 2020.
Source: DeFi Pulse
Meanwhile, crypto analysts consider the long-awaited ETH 2.0 update to be at the core of Ethereum’s upwards rally. Ethereum officials stated that a testnet for ETH 2.0 would go live on August 4, which is the first step for transitioning from a Proof-of-work (PoW) to a Proof-of-stake (PoS) transaction validation mechanism.
The much-anticipated network update created a vast demand for Ethereum options contracts, with investors betting Ethereum’s price would reach the $400-$800 regions. Over $230 million were put into call options, with 6000 contracts expiring on September 25.
Also, crypto derivatives exchange Deribit looked into the possibility for Ethereum to reach and surpass $400 by the end of September or December. It turns out, the odds of Ethereum hitting $400 are 18% and 34%, respectively.
Despite the forecasts, the market is still optimistic in a future price rally above $400. Bitazu Capital’s Mohit Sorout published a chart on Twitter, stating that Ethereum’s climb to $360 “will be fast”, with “Two months of sellers reevaluating their life choices now.”

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The Federal Reserve and the United States government are pumping extreme amounts of money into the economy, already totaling over $484 billion. They are doing so because it already had a goal to inflate the United States Dollar (USD) so that the market can continue to all-time highs. It has always had this goal. They do not care how much inflation goes up by now as we are going into a depression with the potential to totally crash the US economy forever. They believe the only way to save the market from going to zero or negative values is to inflate it so much that it cannot possibly crash that low. Even if the market does not dip that low, inflation serves the interest of powerful people.
The impending crash of the stock market has ramifications for Bitcoin, as, though there is no direct ongoing-correlation between the two, major movements in traditional markets will necessarily affect Bitcoin. According to the Blockchain Center’s Cryptocurrency Correlation Tool, Bitcoin is not correlated with the stock market. However, when major market movements occur, they send ripples throughout the financial ecosystem which necessary affect even ordinarily uncorrelated assets.
Therefore, Bitcoin will reach X price on X date after crashing to a price of X by X date.

Stock Market Crash

The Federal Reserve has caused some serious consternation with their release of ridiculous amounts of money in an attempt to buoy the economy. At face value, it does not seem to have any rationale or logic behind it other than keeping the economy afloat long enough for individuals to profit financially and politically. However, there is an underlying basis to what is going on which is important to understand in order to profit financially.
All markets are functionally price probing systems. They constantly undergo a price-discovery process. In a fiat system, money is an illusory and a fundamentally synthetic instrument with no intrinsic value – similar to Bitcoin. The primary difference between Bitcoin is the underlying technology which provides a slew of benefits that fiat does not. Fiat, however, has an advantage in being able to have the support of powerful nation-states which can use their might to insure the currency’s prosperity.
Traditional stock markets are composed of indices (pl. of index). Indices are non-trading market instruments which are essentially summaries of business values which comprise them. They are continuously recalculated throughout a trading day, and sometimes reflected through tradable instruments such as Exchange Traded Funds or Futures. Indices are weighted by market capitalizations of various businesses.
Price theory essentially states that when a market fails to take out a new low in a given range, it will have an objective to take out the high. When a market fails to take out a new high, it has an objective to make a new low. This is why price-time charts go up and down, as it does this on a second-by-second, minute-by-minute, day-by-day, and even century-by-century basis. Therefore, market indices will always return to some type of bull market as, once a true low is formed, the market will have a price objective to take out a new high outside of its’ given range – which is an all-time high. Instruments can only functionally fall to zero, whereas they can grow infinitely.
So, why inflate the economy so much?
Deflation is disastrous for central banks and markets as it raises the possibility of producing an overall price objective of zero or negative values. Therefore, under a fractional reserve system with a fiat currency managed by a central bank – the goal of the central bank is to depreciate the currency. The dollar is manipulated constantly with the intention of depreciating its’ value.
Central banks have a goal of continued inflated fiat values. They tend to ordinarily contain it at less than ten percent (10%) per annum in order for the psyche of the general populace to slowly adjust price increases. As such, the markets are divorced from any other logic. Economic policy is the maintenance of human egos, not catering to fundamental analysis. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is well-known not to be a measure of actual growth or output. It is a measure of increase in dollars processed. Banks seek to produce raising numbers which make society feel like it is growing economically, making people optimistic. To do so, the currency is inflated, though inflation itself does not actually increase growth. When society is optimistic, it spends and engages in business – resulting in actual growth. It also encourages people to take on credit and debts, creating more fictional fiat.
Inflation is necessary for markets to continue to reach new heights, generating positive emotional responses from the populace, encouraging spending, encouraging debt intake, further inflating the currency, and increasing the sale of government bonds. The fiat system only survives by generating more imaginary money on a regular basis.
Bitcoin investors may profit from this by realizing that stock investors as a whole always stand to profit from the market so long as it is managed by a central bank and does not collapse entirely. If those elements are filled, it has an unending price objective to raise to new heights. It also allows us to realize that this response indicates that the higher-ups believe that the economy could crash in entirety, and it may be wise for investors to have multiple well-thought-out exit strategies.

Economic Analysis of Bitcoin

The reason why the Fed is so aggressively inflating the economy is due to fears that it will collapse forever or never rebound. As such, coupled with a global depression, a huge demand will appear for a reserve currency which is fundamentally different than the previous system. Bitcoin, though a currency or asset, is also a market. It also undergoes a constant price-probing process. Unlike traditional markets, Bitcoin has the exact opposite goal. Bitcoin seeks to appreciate in value and not depreciate. This has a quite different affect in that Bitcoin could potentially become worthless and have a price objective of zero.
Bitcoin was created in 2008 by a now famous mysterious figure known as Satoshi Nakamoto and its’ open source code was released in 2009. It was the first decentralized cryptocurrency to utilize a novel protocol known as the blockchain. Up to one megabyte of data may be sent with each transaction. It is decentralized, anonymous, transparent, easy to set-up, and provides myriad other benefits. Bitcoin is not backed up by anything other than its’ own technology.
Bitcoin is can never be expected to collapse as a framework, even were it to become worthless. The stock market has the potential to collapse in entirety, whereas, as long as the internet exists, Bitcoin will be a functional system with a self-authenticating framework. That capacity to persist regardless of the actual price of Bitcoin and the deflationary nature of Bitcoin means that it has something which fiat does not – inherent value.
Bitcoin is based on a distributed database known as the “blockchain.” Blockchains are essentially decentralized virtual ledger books, replete with pages known as “blocks.” Each page in a ledger is composed of paragraph entries, which are the actual transactions in the block.
Blockchains store information in the form of numerical transactions, which are just numbers. We can consider these numbers digital assets, such as Bitcoin. The data in a blockchain is immutable and recorded only by consensus-based algorithms. Bitcoin is cryptographic and all transactions are direct, without intermediary, peer-to-peer.
Bitcoin does not require trust in a central bank. It requires trust on the technology behind it, which is open-source and may be evaluated by anyone at any time. Furthermore, it is impossible to manipulate as doing so would require all of the nodes in the network to be hacked at once – unlike the stock market which is manipulated by the government and “Market Makers”. Bitcoin is also private in that, though the ledge is openly distributed, it is encrypted. Bitcoin’s blockchain has one of the greatest redundancy and information disaster recovery systems ever developed.
Bitcoin has a distributed governance model in that it is controlled by its’ users. There is no need to trust a payment processor or bank, or even to pay fees to such entities. There are also no third-party fees for transaction processing. As the ledge is immutable and transparent it is never possible to change it – the data on the blockchain is permanent. The system is not easily susceptible to attacks as it is widely distributed. Furthermore, as users of Bitcoin have their private keys assigned to their transactions, they are virtually impossible to fake. No lengthy verification, reconciliation, nor clearing process exists with Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is based on a proof-of-work algorithm. Every transaction on the network has an associated mathetical “puzzle”. Computers known as miners compete to solve the complex cryptographic hash algorithm that comprises that puzzle. The solution is proof that the miner engaged in sufficient work. The puzzle is known as a nonce, a number used only once. There is only one major nonce at a time and it issues 12.5 Bitcoin. Once it is solved, the fact that the nonce has been solved is made public.
A block is mined on average of once every ten minutes. However, the blockchain checks every 2,016,000 minutes (approximately four years) if 201,600 blocks were mined. If it was faster, it increases difficulty by half, thereby deflating Bitcoin. If it was slower, it decreases, thereby inflating Bitcoin. It will continue to do this until zero Bitcoin are issued, projected at the year 2140. On the twelfth of May, 2020, the blockchain will halve the amount of Bitcoin issued when each nonce is guessed. When Bitcoin was first created, fifty were issued per block as a reward to miners. 6.25 BTC will be issued from that point on once each nonce is solved.
Unlike fiat, Bitcoin is a deflationary currency. As BTC becomes scarcer, demand for it will increase, also raising the price. In this, BTC is similar to gold. It is predictable in its’ output, unlike the USD, as it is based on a programmed supply. We can predict BTC’s deflation and inflation almost exactly, if not exactly. Only 21 million BTC will ever be produced, unless the entire network concedes to change the protocol – which is highly unlikely.
Some of the drawbacks to BTC include congestion. At peak congestion, it may take an entire day to process a Bitcoin transaction as only three to five transactions may be processed per second. Receiving priority on a payment may cost up to the equivalent of twenty dollars ($20). Bitcoin mining consumes enough energy in one day to power a single-family home for an entire week.

Trading or Investing?

The fundamental divide in trading revolves around the question of market structure. Many feel that the market operates totally randomly and its’ behavior cannot be predicted. For the purposes of this article, we will assume that the market has a structure, but that that structure is not perfect. That market structure naturally generates chart patterns as the market records prices in time. In order to determine when the stock market will crash, causing a major decline in BTC price, we will analyze an instrument, an exchange traded fund, which represents an index, as opposed to a particular stock. The price patterns of the various stocks in an index are effectively smoothed out. In doing so, a more technical picture arises. Perhaps the most popular of these is the SPDR S&P Standard and Poor 500 Exchange Traded Fund ($SPY).
In trading, little to no concern is given about value of underlying asset. We are concerned primarily about liquidity and trading ranges, which are the amount of value fluctuating on a short-term basis, as measured by volatility-implied trading ranges. Fundamental analysis plays a role, however markets often do not react to real-world factors in a logical fashion. Therefore, fundamental analysis is more appropriate for long-term investing.
The fundamental derivatives of a chart are time (x-axis) and price (y-axis). The primary technical indicator is price, as everything else is lagging in the past. Price represents current asking price and incorrectly implementing positions based on price is one of the biggest trading errors.
Markets and currencies ordinarily have noise, their tendency to back-and-fill, which must be filtered out for true pattern recognition. That noise does have a utility, however, in allowing traders second chances to enter favorable positions at slightly less favorable entry points. When you have any market with enough liquidity for historical data to record a pattern, then a structure can be divined. The market probes prices as part of an ongoing price-discovery process. Market technicians must sometimes look outside of the technical realm and use visual inspection to ascertain the relevance of certain patterns, using a qualitative eye that recognizes the underlying quantitative nature
Markets and instruments rise slower than they correct, however they rise much more than they fall. In the same vein, instruments can only fall to having no worth, whereas they could theoretically grow infinitely and have continued to grow over time. Money in a fiat system is illusory. It is a fundamentally synthetic instrument which has no intrinsic value. Hence, the recent seemingly illogical fluctuations in the market.
According to trade theory, the unending purpose of a market or instrument is to create and break price ranges according to the laws of supply and demand. We must determine when to trade based on each market inflection point as defined in price and in time as opposed to abandoning the trend (as the contrarian trading in this sub often does). Time and Price symmetry must be used to be in accordance with the trend. When coupled with a favorable risk to reward ratio, the ability to stay in the market for most of the defined time period, and adherence to risk management rules; the trader has a solid methodology for achieving considerable gains.
We will engage in a longer term market-oriented analysis to avoid any time-focused pressure. The Bitcoin market is open twenty-four-hours a day, so trading may be done when the individual is ready, without any pressing need to be constantly alert. Let alone, we can safely project months in advance with relatively high accuracy. Bitcoin is an asset which an individual can both trade and invest, however this article will be focused on trading due to the wide volatility in BTC prices over the short-term.

Technical Indicator Analysis of Bitcoin

Technical indicators are often considered self-fulfilling prophecies due to mass-market psychology gravitating towards certain common numbers yielded from them. They are also often discounted when it comes to BTC. That means a trader must be especially aware of these numbers as they can prognosticate market movements. Often, they are meaningless in the larger picture of things.

• Volume – derived from the market itself, it is mostly irrelevant. The major problem with volume for stocks is that the US market open causes tremendous volume surges eradicating any intrinsic volume analysis. This does not occur with BTC, as it is open twenty-four-seven. At major highs and lows, the market is typically anemic. Most traders are not active at terminal discretes (peaks and troughs) because of levels of fear. Volume allows us confidence in time and price symmetry market inflection points, if we observe low volume at a foretold range of values. We can rationalize that an absolute discrete is usually only discovered and anticipated by very few traders. As the general market realizes it, a herd mentality will push the market in the direction favorable to defending it. Volume is also useful for swing trading, as chances for swing’s validity increases if an increase in volume is seen on and after the swing’s activation. Volume is steadily decreasing. Lows and highs are reached when volume is lower.

Therefore, due to the relatively high volume on the 12th of March, we can safely determine that a low for BTC was not reached.

• VIX – Volatility Index, this technical indicator indicates level of fear by the amount of options-based “insurance” in portfolios. A low VIX environment, less than 20 for the S&P index, indicates a stable market with a possible uptrend. A high VIX, over 20, indicates a possible downtrend. VIX is essentially useless for BTC as BTC-based options do not exist. It allows us to predict the market low for $SPY, which will have an indirect impact on BTC in the short term, likely leading to the yearly low. However, it is equally important to see how VIX is changing over time, if it is decreasing or increasing, as that indicates increasing or decreasing fear. Low volatility allows high leverage without risk or rest. Occasionally, markets do rise with high VIX.

As VIX is unusually high, in the forties, we can be confident that a downtrend for the S&P 500 is imminent.

• RSI (Relative Strength Index): The most important technical indicator, useful for determining highs and lows when time symmetry is not availing itself. Sometimes analysis of RSI can conflict in different time frames, easiest way to use it is when it is at extremes – either under 30 or over 70. Extremes can be used for filtering highs or lows based on time-and-price window calculations. Highly instructive as to major corrective clues and indicative of continued directional movement. Must determine if longer-term RSI values find support at same values as before. It is currently at 73.56.
• Secondly, RSI may be used as a high or low filter, to observe the level that short-term RSI reaches in counter-trend corrections. Repetitions based on market movements based on RSI determine how long a trade should be held onto. Once a short term RSI reaches an extreme and stay there, the other RSI’s should gradually reach the same extremes. Once all RSI’s are at extreme highs, a trend confirmation should occur and RSI’s should drop to their midpoint.

Trend Definition Analysis of Bitcoin

Trend definition is highly powerful, cannot be understated. Knowledge of trend logic is enough to be a profitable trader, yet defining a trend is an arduous process. Multiple trends coexist across multiple time frames and across multiple market sectors. Like time structure, it makes the underlying price of the instrument irrelevant. Trend definitions cannot determine the validity of newly formed discretes. Trend becomes apparent when trades based in counter-trend inflection points continue to fail.
Downtrends are defined as an instrument making lower lows and lower highs that are recurrent, additive, qualified swing setups. Downtrends for all instruments are similar, except forex. They are fast and complete much quicker than uptrends. An average downtrend is 18 months, something which we will return to. An uptrend inception occurs when an instrument reaches a point where it fails to make a new low, then that low will be tested. After that, the instrument will either have a deep range retracement or it may take out the low slightly, resulting in a double-bottom. A swing must eventually form.
A simple way to roughly determine trend is to attempt to draw a line from three tops going upwards (uptrend) or a line from three bottoms going downwards (downtrend). It is not possible to correctly draw a downtrend line on the BTC chart, but it is possible to correctly draw an uptrend – indicating that the overall trend is downwards. The only mitigating factor is the impending stock market crash.
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Time Symmetry Analysis of Bitcoin

Time is the movement from the past through the present into the future. It is a measurement in quantified intervals. In many ways, our perception of it is a human construct. It is more powerful than price as time may be utilized for a trade regardless of the market inflection point’s price. Were it possible to perfectly understand time, price would be totally irrelevant due to the predictive certainty time affords. Time structure is easier to learn than price, but much more difficult to apply with any accuracy. It is the hardest aspect of trading to learn, but also the most rewarding.
Humans do not have the ability to recognize every time window, however the ability to define market inflection points in terms of time is the single most powerful trading edge. Regardless, price should not be abandoned for time alone. Time structure analysis It is inherently flawed, as such the markets have a fail-safe, which is Price Structure. Even though Time is much more powerful, Price Structure should never be completely ignored. Time is the qualifier for Price and vice versa. Time can fail by tricking traders into counter-trend trading.
Time is a predestined trade quantifier, a filter to slow trades down, as it allows a trader to specifically focus on specific time windows and rest at others. It allows for quantitative measurements to reach deterministic values and is the primary qualifier for trends. Time structure should be utilized before price structure, and it is the primary trade criterion which requires support from price. We can see price structure on a chart, as areas of mathematical support or resistance, but we cannot see time structure.
Time may be used to tell us an exact point in the future where the market will inflect, after Price Theory has been fulfilled. In the present, price objectives based on price theory added to possible future times for market inflection points give us the exact time of market inflection points and price.
Time Structure is repetitions of time or inherent cycles of time, occurring in a methodical way to provide time windows which may be utilized for inflection points. They are not easily recognized and not easily defined by a price chart as measuring and observing time is very exact. Time structure is not a science, yet it does require precise measurements. Nothing is certain or definite. The critical question must be if a particular approach to time structure is currently lucrative or not.
We will measure it in intervals of 180 bars. Our goal is to determine time windows, when the market will react and when we should pay the most attention. By using time repetitions, the fact that market inflection points occurred at some point in the past and should, therefore, reoccur at some point in the future, we should obtain confidence as to when SPY will reach a market inflection point. Time repetitions are essentially the market’s memory. However, simply measuring the time between two points then trying to extrapolate into the future does not work. Measuring time is not the same as defining time repetitions. We will evaluate past sessions for market inflection points, whether discretes, qualified swings, or intra-range. Then records the times that the market has made highs or lows in a comparable time period to the future one seeks to trade in.
What follows is a time Histogram – A grouping of times which appear close together, then segregated based on that closeness. Time is aligned into combined histogram of repetitions and cycles, however cycles are irrelevant on a daily basis. If trading on an hourly basis, do not use hours.

• Yearly Lows (last seven years): 1/1/13, 4/10/14, 1/15/15, 1/17/16, 1/1/17, 12/15/18, 2/6/19
• Monthly Mode: 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 4, 12
• Daily Mode: 1, 1, 6, 10, 15, 15, 17
• Monthly Lows (for the last year): 3/12/20 (10:00pm), 2/28/20 (7:09am), 1/2/20 (8:09pm), 12/18/19 (8:00am), 11/25/19 (1:00am), 10/24/19 (2:59am), 9/30/19 (2:59am), 8/29,19 (4:00am), 7/17/19 (7:59am), 6/4/19 (5:59pm), 5/1/19 (12:00am), 4/1/19 (12:00am)
• Daily Lows Mode for those Months: 1, 1, 2, 4, 12, 17, 18, 24, 25, 28, 29, 30
• Hourly Lows Mode for those Months (Military time): 0100, 0200, 0200, 0400, 0700, 0700, 0800, 1200, 1200, 1700, 2000, 2200
• Minute Lows Mode for those Months: 00, 00, 00, 00, 00, 00, 09, 09, 59, 59, 59, 59
• Day of the Week Lows (last twenty-six weeks):

Weighted Times are repetitions which appears multiple times within the same list, observed and accentuated once divided into relevant sections of the histogram. They are important in the presently defined trading time period and are similar to a mathematical mode with respect to a series. Phased times are essentially periodical patterns in histograms, though they do not guarantee inflection points
Evaluating the yearly lows, we see that BTC tends to have its lows primarily at the beginning of every year, with a possibility of it being at the end of the year. Following the same methodology, we get the middle of the month as the likeliest day. However, evaluating the monthly lows for the past year, the beginning and end of the month are more likely for lows.
Therefore, we have two primary dates from our histogram.
1/1/21, 1/15/21, and 1/29/21
2:00am, 8:00am, 12:00pm, or 10:00pm
In fact, the high for this year was February the 14th, only thirty days off from our histogram calculations.
The 8.6-Year Armstrong-Princeton Global Economic Confidence model states that 2.15 year intervals occur between corrections, relevant highs and lows. 2.15 years from the all-time peak discrete is February 9, 2020 – a reasonably accurate depiction of the low for this year (which was on 3/12/20). (Taking only the Armstrong model into account, the next high should be Saturday, April 23, 2022). Therefore, the Armstrong model indicates that we have actually bottomed out for the year!
Bear markets cannot exist in perpetuity whereas bull markets can. Bear markets will eventually have price objectives of zero, whereas bull markets can increase to infinity. It can occur for individual market instruments, but not markets as a whole. Since bull markets are defined by low volatility, they also last longer. Once a bull market is indicated, the trader can remain in a long position until a new high is reached, then switch to shorts. The average bear market is eighteen months long, giving us a date of August 19th, 2021 for the end of this bear market – roughly speaking. They cannot be shorter than fifteen months for a central-bank controlled market, which does not apply to Bitcoin. (Otherwise, it would continue until Sunday, September 12, 2021.) However, we should expect Bitcoin to experience its’ exponential growth after the stock market re-enters a bull market.
Terry Laundy’s T-Theory implemented by measuring the time of an indicator from peak to trough, then using that to define a future time window. It is similar to an head-and-shoulders pattern in that it is the process of forming the right side from a synthetic technical indicator. If the indicator is making continued lows, then time is recalculated for defining the right side of the T. The date of the market inflection point may be a price or indicator inflection date, so it is not always exactly useful. It is better to make us aware of possible market inflection points, clustered with other data. It gives us an RSI low of May, 9th 2020.
The Bradley Cycle is coupled with volatility allows start dates for campaigns or put options as insurance in portfolios for stocks. However, it is also useful for predicting market moves instead of terminal dates for discretes. Using dates which correspond to discretes, we can see how those dates correspond with changes in VIX.
Therefore, our timeline looks like:

• 2/14/20 – yearly high ($10372 USD)
• 3/12/20 – yearly low thus far ($3858 USD)
• 5/9/20 – T-Theory true yearly low (BTC between 4863 and 3569)
• 5/26/20 – hashrate difficulty halvening
• 11/14/20 – stock market low
• 1/15/21 – yearly low for BTC, around $8528
• 8/19/21 – end of stock bear market
• 11/26/21 – eighteen months from halvening, average peak from halvenings (BTC begins rising from $3000 area to above $23,312)
• 4/23/22 – all-time high

Taken from my blog: http://aliamin.info/2020/